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La señal y el ruido

Por qué algunas predicciones fallan y otras no

de Nate Silver ...

Traducido por Carles Andreu Saburit, Carmen Villalba Ruiz ...

Series series DIVULGACIÓN
Los seres humanos estamos obligados ser previsores. Nuestra supervivencia depende de la capacidad que tengamos para anticiparnos a lo que pueda ocurrir, sea en el ámbito que sea. Y aunque pudiera parecer que la tecnología nos lo pone cada vez más fácil, lo cierto es que vivimos ante el riesgo de ser sepultados por la cantidad de datos que recibimos a diario. Cualquier intento de procesar, ... Leer más

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Los seres humanos estamos obligados ser previsores. Nuestra supervivencia depende de la capacidad que tengamos para anticiparnos a lo que pueda ocurrir, sea en el ámbito que sea. Y aunque pudiera parecer que la tecnología nos lo pone cada vez más fácil, lo cierto es que vivimos ante el riesgo de ser sepultados por la cantidad de datos que recibimos a diario. Cualquier intento de procesar,
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Descifrando las Campañas Políticas: Cómo Identificar y Protegerte de las Estrategias Maliciosas y Manipuladoras

de Juan Álvarez ...

¡Bienvenido al libro "Descifrando las Campañas Políticas"! En este libro electrónico, te enseñaremos cómo identificar y protegerte de las estrategias maliciosas y manipuladoras en las campañas políticas.En la actualidad, el marketing político se ha convertido en una herramienta fundamental para los candidatos y partidos políticos. Sin embargo, muchas veces estas campañas utilizan tácticas ... Leer más

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¡Bienvenido al libro "Descifrando las Campañas Políticas"! En este libro electrónico, te enseñaremos cómo identificar y protegerte de las estrategias maliciosas y manipuladoras en las campañas políticas.En la actualidad, el marketing político se ha convertido en una herramienta fundamental para los candidatos y partidos políticos. Sin embargo, muchas veces estas campañas utilizan tácticas
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Política sin trinchera

Reflexiones, elecciones y futuro

de Pepe Auth ...

En Política sin trinchera, Pepe Auth demuestra que es posible analizar la política chilena sin prejuicios ni banderas. Tras más de treinta años de protagonismo en la centroiz- quierda chilena, el exdiputado se aleja de la trinchera partidaria para observar desde fuera, con libertad y sin ataduras, el com- plejo panorama político del Chile reciente. Sin complacencias ni guiños a lo políticamente ... Leer más

$8,900 CLP o gratis con Kobo Plus

En Política sin trinchera, Pepe Auth demuestra que es posible analizar la política chilena sin prejuicios ni banderas. Tras más de treinta años de protagonismo en la centroiz- quierda chilena, el exdiputado se aleja de la trinchera partidaria para observar desde fuera, con libertad y sin ataduras, el com- plejo panorama político del Chile reciente. Sin complacencias ni guiños a lo políticamente
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The Voting Wars: From Florida 2000 to the Next Election Meltdown

de Richard L. Hasen ...

In 2000, just a few hundred votes out of millions cast in the state of Florida separated Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush from his Democratic opponent, Al Gore. The outcome of the election rested on Florida's 25 electoral votes, and legal wrangling continued for 36 days. Then, abruptly, one of the most controversial Supreme Court decisions in U.S. history, Bush v. Gore, cut short ... Leer más

Antes $27,952 CLP Ahora $24,994 CLP

In 2000, just a few hundred votes out of millions cast in the state of Florida separated Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush from his Democratic opponent, Al Gore. The outcome of the election rested on Florida's 25 electoral votes, and legal wrangling continued for 36 days. Then, abruptly, one of the most controversial Supreme Court decisions in U.S. history, Bush v. Gore, cut short
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So You Want To Run For Office

A Campaign Toolkit

de Carol Merton ...

This book is for adults considering a political career, interested in running for office or for those who are curious to learn how the entry into politics works. This book is written to provide useful practical information, wisdom, encouragement and inspiration for anyone seeking to run for public office written by someone who ran, first time, and succeeded.Consider this book as a starting point ... Leer más

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This book is for adults considering a political career, interested in running for office or for those who are curious to learn how the entry into politics works. This book is written to provide useful practical information, wisdom, encouragement and inspiration for anyone seeking to run for public office written by someone who ran, first time, and succeeded.Consider this book as a starting point
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Surges in Party Membership

The SNP and Scottish Greens after the Independence Referendum

de Lynn Bennie, James Mitchell, Robert Johns ...

Series series Routledge Studies in British Politics
This book presents a comprehensive analysis of a remarkable and unexpected outcome of the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence.Despite defeat in the Scottish referendum, the two leading parties in the Yes campaign – the Scottish National Party and Scottish Green Party – experienced an extraordinary surge in membership. The book explains these events, examining the relationship between ... Leer más

Gratis

This book presents a comprehensive analysis of a remarkable and unexpected outcome of the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence.Despite defeat in the Scottish referendum, the two leading parties in the Yes campaign – the Scottish National Party and Scottish Green Party – experienced an extraordinary surge in membership. The book explains these events, examining the relationship between
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Veblens America

The Conspicuous Case of Donald J. Trump

de Sidney Plotkin ...

The astonishing political rise of Donald Trump sent seasoned observers scurrying for clues and explanations. How did Trump happen? Of course no one guide will suffice, but a surprisingly helpful one, suggests Sidney Plotkin, is the early twentieth-century American radical, Thorstein Veblen. In remarkably vivid ways, Veblen understood the enduring American allure of figures such as Trump. [NP] As ... Leer más

Antes $24,838 CLP Ahora $22,209 CLP

The astonishing political rise of Donald Trump sent seasoned observers scurrying for clues and explanations. How did Trump happen? Of course no one guide will suffice, but a surprisingly helpful one, suggests Sidney Plotkin, is the early twentieth-century American radical, Thorstein Veblen. In remarkably vivid ways, Veblen understood the enduring American allure of figures such as Trump. [NP] As
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Electoral Reform in War and Peace, 1906–18

de Martin Pugh ...

Series series Routledge Revivals
The Fourth Parliamentary Reform Act of 1918 gave the vote to nearly thirteen million men and over eight million women and determined the structure of electoral politics in twentieth-century Britain. Electoral Reform in War and Peace, 1906–18 (originally published in 1978) is the first attempt to explain this turning-point; it does so partly by exploring the relationship between reform of the ... Leer más

$43,678 CLP

The Fourth Parliamentary Reform Act of 1918 gave the vote to nearly thirteen million men and over eight million women and determined the structure of electoral politics in twentieth-century Britain. Electoral Reform in War and Peace, 1906–18 (originally published in 1978) is the first attempt to explain this turning-point; it does so partly by exploring the relationship between reform of the
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The Elections in Israel 2003

de Michal Shamir ...

The Elections in Israel--2003 brings together leading Israeli and North American social scientists and their state-of-the-art, in-depth analysis of the 2003 Israeli national elections. These elections returned Ariel Sharon and the Likud to power amid one of the bloodiest rounds of conflict between Israel and the Palestinians and a severe economic downturn in Israel. Contributors analyze the ... Leer más

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The Elections in Israel--2003 brings together leading Israeli and North American social scientists and their state-of-the-art, in-depth analysis of the 2003 Israeli national elections. These elections returned Ariel Sharon and the Likud to power amid one of the bloodiest rounds of conflict between Israel and the Palestinians and a severe economic downturn in Israel. Contributors analyze the
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Ground Wars

Personalized Communication in Political Campaigns

de Rasmus Kleis Nielsen ...

Political campaigns today are won or lost in the so-called ground war--the strategic deployment of teams of staffers, volunteers, and paid part-timers who work the phones and canvass block by block, house by house, voter by voter. Ground Wars provides an in-depth ethnographic portrait of two such campaigns, New Jersey Democrat Linda Stender's and that of Democratic Congressman Jim Himes of ... Leer más

Antes $30,270 CLP Ahora $27,067 CLP

Political campaigns today are won or lost in the so-called ground war--the strategic deployment of teams of staffers, volunteers, and paid part-timers who work the phones and canvass block by block, house by house, voter by voter. Ground Wars provides an in-depth ethnographic portrait of two such campaigns, New Jersey Democrat Linda Stender's and that of Democratic Congressman Jim Himes of
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The Politicos Guide to the New House of Commons 2015

Profiles of the New MPs and Analysis of the 2015 General Election Results

Edición de Tim Carr ...

In the wake of the most unprecedented election result in recent memory, the question on everyone's lips is: what just happened to the UK's political landscape - and why? And who are the 182 new faces on the House of Commons benches? In The Politicos Guide to the New House of Commons 2015, public affairs consultant Tim Carr teams up with editors of the bestselling Politicos Guide to the 2015 ... Leer más

$16,491 CLP o gratis con Kobo Plus

In the wake of the most unprecedented election result in recent memory, the question on everyone's lips is: what just happened to the UK's political landscape - and why? And who are the 182 new faces on the House of Commons benches? In The Politicos Guide to the New House of Commons 2015, public affairs consultant Tim Carr teams up with editors of the bestselling Politicos Guide to the 2015
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La Tercera Alternancia y el Partidismo Demagógico:

El Gobierno de Andrés Manuel López Obrador (2019-2014)

de Arturo Villalpando Rojas ...

Series Libro 1 - Gobernantes de México
La tercera fue la vencida. En 2018 los votantes optaron por otra alternancia, ahora con el opositor más influyente de los últimos años. El triunfo de Andrés Manuel López Obrador fue arrollador. Los electores, frente a lo visto en las últimas elecciones federales, le entregaron el control del Congreso, y de paso impondría su influencia sobre el Poder Judicial. Con el tabasqueño, para sorpresa de ... Leer más

Antes $3,397 CLP Ahora $3,038 CLP o gratis con Kobo Plus

La tercera fue la vencida. En 2018 los votantes optaron por otra alternancia, ahora con el opositor más influyente de los últimos años. El triunfo de Andrés Manuel López Obrador fue arrollador. Los electores, frente a lo visto en las últimas elecciones federales, le entregaron el control del Congreso, y de paso impondría su influencia sobre el Poder Judicial. Con el tabasqueño, para sorpresa de
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Vote Gun

How Gun Rights Became Politicized in the United States

de Patrick J. Charles ...

Today, gun control is one of the most polarizing topics in American politics. However, before the 1960s, positions on firearms rights did not necessarily map onto partisan affiliation. What explains this drastic shift?Patrick J. Charles charts the rise of gun rights activism from the early twentieth century through the 1980 presidential election, pinpointing the role of the 1968 Gun Control Act. ... Leer más

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Today, gun control is one of the most polarizing topics in American politics. However, before the 1960s, positions on firearms rights did not necessarily map onto partisan affiliation. What explains this drastic shift?Patrick J. Charles charts the rise of gun rights activism from the early twentieth century through the 1980 presidential election, pinpointing the role of the 1968 Gun Control Act.
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Parties and Party Systems in Liberal Democracies

Edición de Steven B Wolinetz ...

Series series Routledge Revivals
First published in 1988, Parties and Party Systems in Liberal Democracies considers the extent and ways in which Western European and North American parties and party systems changed in the 1970s and 1980s after decades of relative stability. It examines changes in the nature and organisation of parties and relates this to changes in electoral behaviour and to wider social and economic change. It ... Leer más

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First published in 1988, Parties and Party Systems in Liberal Democracies considers the extent and ways in which Western European and North American parties and party systems changed in the 1970s and 1980s after decades of relative stability. It examines changes in the nature and organisation of parties and relates this to changes in electoral behaviour and to wider social and economic change. It
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Anatomy of a Liberal Victory

Making Sense of the Vote in the 2000 Canadian Election

de Andre Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil, Richard Nadeau, Neil Nevitte ...

Anatomy of a Liberal Victory: Making Sense of the Vote in the 2000 Canadian Election provides a compressive account of the factors that led Canadians to vote the way they did in the Fall 2000 Canadian election, which resulted in a third consecutive Liberal majority government. The book explains the overall impact that these factors had on how well or poorly each of the parties did in the election. ... Leer más

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Anatomy of a Liberal Victory: Making Sense of the Vote in the 2000 Canadian Election provides a compressive account of the factors that led Canadians to vote the way they did in the Fall 2000 Canadian election, which resulted in a third consecutive Liberal majority government. The book explains the overall impact that these factors had on how well or poorly each of the parties did in the election.
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New Jersey General Election 2023

A Comprehensive Guide, Candidates, Issues, and Implications

de Shantel Talbot ...

Are you ready to delve into the heart of American politics and witness democracy in action? Look no further than "The Ultimate Guide to the New Jersey General Election 2023." This mind-blowing and comprehensive guide is your key to unlocking the secrets of one of the most anticipated political events of the year. Get ready to be captivated by the power of your vote and the impact it can have in ... Leer más

Antes $3,397 CLP Ahora $3,038 CLP o gratis con Kobo Plus

Are you ready to delve into the heart of American politics and witness democracy in action? Look no further than "The Ultimate Guide to the New Jersey General Election 2023." This mind-blowing and comprehensive guide is your key to unlocking the secrets of one of the most anticipated political events of the year. Get ready to be captivated by the power of your vote and the impact it can have in
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The Keys to the White House

A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President

de Allan Lichtman ...

With The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President, average citizens are giving the pollsters and pundits a run for their money. In this book, prominent political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or 'keys' (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections. In ... Leer más

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With The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President, average citizens are giving the pollsters and pundits a run for their money. In this book, prominent political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or 'keys' (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections. In
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Woman President

Confronting Postfeminist Political Culture

de Kristina Horn Sheeler, Karrin Vasby Anderson ...

Series Libro 22 - Presidential Rhetoric and Political Communication
What elements of American political and rhetorical culture block the imagining—and thus, the electing—of a woman as president? Examining both major-party and third-party campaigns by women, including the 2008 campaigns of Hillary Clinton and Sarah Palin, the authors of Woman President: Confronting Postfeminist Political Culture identify the factors that limit electoral possibilities for women ... Leer más

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What elements of American political and rhetorical culture block the imagining—and thus, the electing—of a woman as president? Examining both major-party and third-party campaigns by women, including the 2008 campaigns of Hillary Clinton and Sarah Palin, the authors of Woman President: Confronting Postfeminist Political Culture identify the factors that limit electoral possibilities for women
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From Bullets to Ballots

The Transformation of Rebel Groups into Political Parties

Edición de John Ishiyama ...

Series series Democratization Special Issues
In recent years, an increasing amount of research has argued that the successful transformation of rebel organization into parties is critical to stable post-conflict peace and democratization. However, the process of the transformation of rebel groups into parties is not well understood. Under what conditions do rebel groups transform into parties? Or into something else? What are the causal ... Leer más

$67,046 CLP

In recent years, an increasing amount of research has argued that the successful transformation of rebel organization into parties is critical to stable post-conflict peace and democratization. However, the process of the transformation of rebel groups into parties is not well understood. Under what conditions do rebel groups transform into parties? Or into something else? What are the causal
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Parties and Political Change in South Asia

Edición de James Chiriyankandath ...

Over the past seven decades and more political parties have become an essential feature of the political landscape of the South Asian subcontinent, serving both as a conduit and product of the tumultuous change the region has experienced. Yet they have not been the focus of sustained scholarly attention. This collection focuses on different aspects of how major parties have been agents of - and ... Leer más

$32,501 CLP

Over the past seven decades and more political parties have become an essential feature of the political landscape of the South Asian subcontinent, serving both as a conduit and product of the tumultuous change the region has experienced. Yet they have not been the focus of sustained scholarly attention. This collection focuses on different aspects of how major parties have been agents of - and
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Donald Trump and The Great Comeback of 2024

de Valerie Connor ...

Donald Trump and the Great Comeback of 2024 is an in-depth exploration of one of the most remarkable political stories in modern history. This compelling book chronicles Donald Trump's journey from the fallout of his 2020 presidential loss to his triumphant return to the Oval Office in 2024. Written by political analyst Valerie Connor, this book goes behind the scenes to examine the strategies, ... Leer más

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Donald Trump and the Great Comeback of 2024 is an in-depth exploration of one of the most remarkable political stories in modern history. This compelling book chronicles Donald Trump's journey from the fallout of his 2020 presidential loss to his triumphant return to the Oval Office in 2024. Written by political analyst Valerie Connor, this book goes behind the scenes to examine the strategies,
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Election Campaigns and Welfare State Change

Democratic Linkage and Leadership Under Pressure

de Staffan Kumlin, Achim Goerres ...

For over three decades, mature European welfare states have been on their way into an austerity phase marked by greater needs and more insecure revenues. A number of reform pressures-including population ageing, unemployment, economic globalization, and increased migration-call into question the economic sustainability and normative underpinnings of transfer systems and public services. And while ... Leer más

$74,056 CLP

For over three decades, mature European welfare states have been on their way into an austerity phase marked by greater needs and more insecure revenues. A number of reform pressures-including population ageing, unemployment, economic globalization, and increased migration-call into question the economic sustainability and normative underpinnings of transfer systems and public services. And while
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USA Presidential Race

de Grant Kelly ...

The U.S. presidential election is arguably one of the most significant political events not just for the United States but for the entire world. Every four years, the election determines the leader of one of the world's most powerful countries, whose decisions shape global economies, international relations, and geopolitical landscapes. The weight of this election extends beyond America's borders, ... Leer más

$8,529 CLP

The U.S. presidential election is arguably one of the most significant political events not just for the United States but for the entire world. Every four years, the election determines the leader of one of the world's most powerful countries, whose decisions shape global economies, international relations, and geopolitical landscapes. The weight of this election extends beyond America's borders,
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California 2.0

An Independent Vision for California's Abundant Future

de Jon Henderson ...

Independence. Balance. Abundance.California stands at a crossroads. The world’s fourth-largest economy has become defined by homelessness, wildfires, unaffordable housing, and political dysfunction—stories that overshadow the beauty, resilience, and promise Californians know to be true.California 2.0 offers a clear, nonpartisan blueprint to restore what makes this state extraordinary. Jon ... Leer más

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Independence. Balance. Abundance.California stands at a crossroads. The world’s fourth-largest economy has become defined by homelessness, wildfires, unaffordable housing, and political dysfunction—stories that overshadow the beauty, resilience, and promise Californians know to be true.California 2.0 offers a clear, nonpartisan blueprint to restore what makes this state extraordinary. Jon
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