The #1 English-language bestseller in China--the book that is shaping China's planning and policy for the future.A "gray rhino" is a highly probable, high impact yet all-too-often neglected threat: kin to both the elephant in the room and the improbable and unforeseeable black swan. Gray rhinos are not random surprises, but occur after a series of warnings and visible evidence. The bursting of the housing bubble in 2008, the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Katrin...

Like two roosters in a fighting arena, Haiti and the Dominican Republic are encircled by barriers of geography and poverty. They co-inhabit the Caribbean island of Hispaniola, but their histories are as deeply divided as their cultures: one French-speaking and black, one Spanish-speaking and mulatto. Yet, despite their antagonism, the two countries share a national symbol in the rooster--and a fundamental activity and favorite sport in the cockfight. In this book, Michele Wucker asks: "If ...

The #1 international bestselling author of The Gray Rhino offers a bold new framework for understanding risk in and how we can re-examine and re-shape our relationship with uncertainty to live more productive and successful lives.What drives a sixty-four-year-old woman to hurl herself over Niagara Falls in a barrel? Why do young journalists risk their lives to tell the stories of strangers? Why do some people wait until the last minute to get to the airport while others get there m...

The #1 English-language bestseller in China--the book that is shaping China's planning and policy for the future.A "gray rhino" is a highly probable, high impact yet neglected threat: kin to both the elephant in the room and the improbable and unforeseeable black swan. Gray rhinos are not random surprises, but occur after a series of warnings and visible evidence. The bursting of the housing bubble in 2008, the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and other n...

本書作者米歇爾．渥克曾被遴選為世界經濟論壇全球青年領袖，長期為《紐約時報》、《華盛頓郵報》、《華爾街日報》、CNN等知名媒體撰稿，提出重要的趨勢觀察。在本書，渥克為我們解釋什麼是灰犀牛。相較於極不可能發生、實際上卻會發生，而且發生後會帶來重大衝擊的黑天鵝事件，灰犀牛是既存的威脅，但我們卻因為種種因素而選擇毫無作為。在生活中，各處皆可見到灰犀牛的蹤影，例如：．忽略牙醫的提醒——每天搭配使用牙線、每半年洗牙一次，結果換來必須接受口腔外科手術治療的結果。．2008年金融風暴之前，已有許多警訊出現，但投資人仍然樂觀投資房市，結果損失慘重，血本無歸。無論是企業、政府、產業或個人，都會面臨許多灰犀牛事件，如果毫無防備、毫無作為，下場可能會很慘。渥克在本書提出面對灰犀牛的五階段常見反應，教我們打破迷思、正視問題。章末也有灰犀牛心法，幫助我們建立正確觀念，日後遇到明顯問題時，才能積極採取行動。無論是哪種灰犀牛事件，其實都有跡可尋。渥克長年鑽研拉丁美洲經濟，曾在2001年阿根廷債務危機爆發九個月之...

彼得．杜拉克：「風險來自於你自己不知道你在做什麼。」高風險時代下必讀的決策指南！培養洞察「風險指紋」的敏銳能力，為個人生涯、投資理財、企業經營、組織領導，做出勇敢、堅定又明智的抉擇！1901年，一名64歲的女性自願爬進醃菜桶裡，被人從北美洲尼加拉瀑布制高點（約51公尺高）推落，一舉締造史上首位活著橫渡尼加拉瀑布的瘋狂紀錄。究竟是什麼原因讓她不惜賠上性命，做出如此高風險的決定？這個真實的案例也讓我們進一步思考：．為什麼有些人盡一切所能避免風險、保守謹慎？．為什麼有些人寧可承擔可能失敗的風險，也不願錯失良機？．為什麼有人明明看到投資進場的好時機，卻總是躊躇不前而錯過機會？...