Economic forecasting is a key ingredient of decision making both in the public and in the private sector. Because economic outcomes are the result of a vast, complex, dynamic and stochastic system, forecasting is very difficult and forecast errors are unavoidable. Because forecast precision and reliability can be enhanced by the use of proper econometric models and methods, this innovative book provides an overview of both theory and applications. Undergraduate and graduate students learni...

This book shows how current and recent market prices convey information about the probability distributions that govern future prices. Moving beyond purely theoretical models, Stephen Taylor applies methods supported by empirical research of equity and foreign exchange markets to show how daily and more frequent asset prices, and the prices of option contracts, can be used to construct and assess predictions about future prices, their volatility, and their probability distributions.

A landmark book on quantitative methods in financial markets for graduate students and finance professionalsRecent decades have seen an extraordinary growth in the use of quantitative methods in financial markets. Finance professionals routinely use sophisticated statistical techniques in portfolio management, proprietary trading, risk management, financial consulting, and securities regulation. This graduate-level textbook is designed for PhD students, advanced MB...

Econometrics: A Simple Introduction offers an accessible guide to the principles and methods of econometrics, with data samples, regressions, equations and diagrams to illustrate the analysis.Examine a linear and multiple regression model, ordinary least squares method, and the Gauss-Markov conditions for a best linear unbiased estimator.Understand hypothesis testing, with a null hypothesis, t, F or chi-square test statistics and distributions, and interpret regression resu...

This book is concerned with recent developments in time series and panel data techniques for the analysis of macroeconomic and financial data. It provides a rigorous, nevertheless user-friendly, account of the time series techniques dealing with univariate and multivariate time series models, as well as panel data models. It is distinct from other time series texts in the sense that it also covers panel data models and attempts at a more coherent integration of time series, multivariate an...

With a new author team contributing decades of practical experience, this fully updated and thoroughly classroom-tested second edition textbook prepares students and practitioners to create effective forecasting models and master the techniques of time series analysis. Taking a practical and example-driven approach, this textbook summarises the most critical decisions, techniques and steps involved in creating forecasting models for business and economics. Students are led through the proc...

This text gives budding actuaries and financial analysts a foundation in multiple regression and time series. They will learn about these statistical techniques using data on the demand for insurance, lottery sales, foreign exchange rates, and other applications. Although no specific knowledge of risk management or finance is presumed, the approach introduces applications in which statistical techniques can be used to analyze real data of interest. In addition to the fundamentals, this boo...

This book constitutes the first serious attempt to explain the basics of econometrics and its applications in the clearest and simplest manner possible. Recognising the fact that a good level of mathematics is no longer a necessary prerequisite for economics/financial economics undergraduate and postgraduate programmes, it introduces this key subdivision of economics to an audience who might otherwise have been deterred by its complex nature.

Understanding the dynamic evolution of the yield curve is critical to many financial tasks, including pricing financial assets and their derivatives, managing financial risk, allocating portfolios, structuring fiscal debt, conducting monetary policy, and valuing capital goods. Unfortunately, most yield curve models tend to be theoretically rigorous but empirically disappointing, or empirically successful but theoretically lacking. In this book, Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch propose t...

As real estate forms a significant part of the asset portfolios of most investors and lenders, it is crucial that analysts and institutions employ sound techniques for modelling and forecasting the performance of real estate assets. Assuming no prior knowledge of econometrics, this book introduces and explains a broad range of quantitative techniques that are relevant for the analysis of real estate data. It includes numerous detailed examples, giving readers the confidence they need to es...

Addresses newly exposed weaknesses of financial risk models in the context of market stress scenariosThis will be the definitive book for readers looking to improve their approach to modeling financial risk

Value-at-Risk (VaR) is a powerful tool for assessing market risk in real time—a critical insight when making trading and hedging decisions. The VaR Modeling Handbook is the most complete, up-to-date reference on the subject for today’s savvy investors, traders, portfolio managers, and other asset and risk managers.Unlike market risk metrics such as the Greeks, or beta, which are applicable to only certain asset categories and sources of market risk, VaR is applicable to al...