The idea that the human mind-that faculty of the intellect which we use to define and discern the truth-might also be used to deceive itself is not new. The classic orator Demosthenes warned of this possibility in 349 B.C. when he wrote that "Nothing is more easy than to deceive one's self; what a man wishes he generally believes to be true." 1 Even Jean Jacques Rousseau, who suggested the possibility of man as "noble savage," alerts us to this paradox, when he writes "Jamais fa nature ne ...

“An invaluable resource for anyone who aspires to think clearly” (The Guardian) from the New York Times bestselling author of Superforecasting and Future BabbleFrom terror attacks to collapsing economies, from painkiller epidemics to mass gun violence and poisonous toys from China, our list of fears seems to be exploding. Yet we are the safest and healthiest humans in history. Why are we so worried?The Science of Fear...

This is the first book to show the capabilities of Microsoft Excel to teach human resource management statistics effectively. It is a step-by-step exercise-driven guide for students and practitioners who need to master Excel to solve practical human resource management problems. If understanding statistics isn’t your strongest suit, you are not especially mathematically-inclined, or if you are wary of computers, this is the right book for you.Excel, a widely available computer prog...

This book is written for behavioral scientists who want to consider adding R to their existing set of statistical tools, or want to switch to R as their main computation tool. The authors aim primarily to help practitioners of behavioral research make the transition to R. The focus is to provide practical advice on some of the widely-used statistical methods in behavioral research, using a set of notes and annotated examples. The book will also help beginners learn more about statistics an...

This work has the aim of making facet theory, and the approach to research which derives from it, more accessible to behavioral and social scientists than has been possible in the past. In a first section the book gives the background to the theory and associated methods of analysis, illustrating the major components of the ap proach in use. A second section then provides detailed examples of the applications of the facet approach in developmental, clinical, and environmental psychology, a...

Text Analysis with R for Students of Literature is written with students and scholars of literature in mind but will be applicable to other humanists and social scientists wishing to extend their methodological tool kit to include quantitative and computational approaches to the study of text. Computation provides access to information in text that we simply cannot gather using traditional qualitative methods of close reading and human synthesis. Text Analysis with R for Stude...

In a world in which we are constantly surrounded by data, figures, and statistics, it is imperative to understand and to be able to use quantitative methods. Statistical models and methods are among the most important tools in economic analysis, decision-making and business planning. This textbook, “Exploratory Data Analysis in Business and Economics”, aims to familiarise students of economics and business as well as practitioners in firms with the basic principles, techniques, and applica...

This book proposes a model for understanding how innovative policy decisions are taken in complex political and organizational systems as well as the possible strategies that the promoter of the innovation can employ in order to maximize the probability of successful adoption and implementation. It presents a conceptual framework for the analysis of decisional situations in order to design the most appropriate strategies for overcoming conflict (e.g. of the NIMBY variety) and/or increasing...

This is the first book to show the capabilities of Microsoft Excel to teach social science statistics effectively. It is a step-by-step exercise-driven guide for students and practitioners who need to master Excel to solve practical social science problems. If understanding statistics isn’t your strongest suit, you are not especially mathematically-inclined, or if you are wary of computers, this is the right book for you.Excel, a widely available computer program for students and m...

Intervention Research in Learning Disabilities is based on proceedings of the Symposium on Intervention Research sponsored by the Division for Learning Disabilities (DLD) of the Council for Exceptional Children and held at Purdue University, November 14-16, 1988. It presents a wide range of critical issues and insights, both theoretical and practical, related to research with learning disabled individuals. The book is divided into four broad sections: issues in interventio...

This book enables readers who may not be familiar with matrices to understand a variety of multivariate analysis procedures in matrix forms. Another feature of the book is that it emphasizes what model underlies a procedure and what objective function is optimized for fitting the model to data. The author believes that the matrix-based learning of such models and objective functions is the fastest way to comprehend multivariate data analysis. The text is arranged so that readers can intuit...

This book examines the methodological problems of accounting for the dead in armed conflicts as well as how the process itself is open to manipulation and controversy. Inspired by the work of the International Practitioner Network of casualty recording organizations, the book features thematic analysis, case studies and historical discussion on the use of the body count towards political, humanitarian and military ends.The book begins with a strategic analysis of the body count tha...