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內容簡介～最強的決策工具，也是最流行的統計學～從「結果」倒推「原因」，少少的情報就足以預測未來！【本書特色】◎全書以圖解＆步驟拆解，視覺化呈現運算的邏輯，助你突破貝氏統計的兩大難關──「符號」和「條件機率」。◎蒙提霍爾問題、囚徒問題、垃圾郵件的過濾，援引6道經典例題，深化理解貝氏統計學，啟發你的應用靈感。◎每小節的最後都有重點總結，學習後就能快速歸納要點。日本物理學家佐治晴夫曾說過：「所有的過去，都可以被改寫。」福爾摩斯的經典名言：「排除一切不可能之後，最後剩下的無論再如何離奇，也必然是真相。」這兩句名言所闡述的「反向推理」，背後所牽涉的概念，其實就是「貝氏統計」的核心。隨著「大數據」、「資料庫」成為科技趨勢，「統計學」成為近年來的顯學。其中，又以「貝氏統計學」為創新領域最廣泛提及的佼佼者。◆◆什麼是貝氏統計學？◆◆我們... ... Read more

$8.42 USD

內容簡介～最強的決策工具，也是最流行的統計學～從「結果」倒推「原因」，少少的情報就足以預測未來！【本書特色】◎全書以圖解＆步驟拆解，視覺化呈現運算的邏輯，助你突破貝氏統計的兩大難關──「符號」和「條件機率」。◎蒙提霍爾問題、囚徒問題、垃圾郵件的過濾，援引6道經典例題，深化理解貝氏統計學，啟發你的應用靈感。◎每小節的最後都有重點總結，學習後就能快速歸納要點。日本物理學家佐治晴夫曾說過：「所有的過去，都可以被改寫。」福爾摩斯的經典名言：「排除一切不可能之後，最後剩下的無論再如何離奇，也必然是真相。」這兩句名言所闡述的「反向推理」，背後所牽涉的概念，其實就是「貝氏統計」的核心。隨著「大數據」、「資料庫」成為科技趨勢，「統計學」成為近年來的顯學。其中，又以「貝氏統計學」為創新領域最廣泛提及的佼佼者。◆◆什麼是貝氏統計學？◆◆我們...
... Read more
Chances Are . . .

Adventures in Probability

by Michael Kaplan, Ellen Kaplan ...

A compelling journey through history, mathematics, and philosophy, charting humanitys struggle against randomnessOur lives are played out in the arena of chance. However little we recognize it in our day-to-day existence, we are always riding the odds, seeking out certainty but settling-reluctantly-for likelihood, building our beliefs on the shadowy props of probability. Chances Are is the story ... Read more

$6.29 USD

A compelling journey through history, mathematics, and philosophy, charting humanitys struggle against randomnessOur lives are played out in the arena of chance. However little we recognize it in our day-to-day existence, we are always riding the odds, seeking out certainty but settling-reluctantly-for likelihood, building our beliefs on the shadowy props of probability. Chances Are is the story
... Read more
The Signal and the Noise

Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't

by Nate Silver ...

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • The groundbreaking exploration of probability and uncertainty that explains how to make better predictions in a world drowning in data, from the nation’s foremost political forecaster—updated with insights into the pandemic, journalism today, and pollingOne of The Wall Street Journal’s Ten Best Works of Nonfiction of the Year“Could turn out to be one of the more ... Read more

$8.19 USD

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • The groundbreaking exploration of probability and uncertainty that explains how to make better predictions in a world drowning in data, from the nation’s foremost political forecaster—updated with insights into the pandemic, journalism today, and pollingOne of The Wall Street Journal’s Ten Best Works of Nonfiction of the Year“Could turn out to be one of the more
... Read more
數學教你不犯錯〈下〉：搞定期望值、認清迴歸趨勢、弄懂存在性

HOW NOT TO BE WRONG:The Power of Mathematical Thinking

Translated by 李國偉 ...

by 艾倫伯格, Jordan Ellenberg ...

Series series 科學文化
會數學就像戴上X光的眼鏡，能從混亂無序的世界表像裡，看透其後隱藏的結構。數學是一門不會把事情搞錯的學問，它的技術與習慣經歷過多少世紀的辛勤努力與論辯。手中有了數學當工具，你可以更深刻、更穩健、更有意義的瞭解這個世界。你需要的只是一位教練，或甚至是一本書，來教導你相關規則及基本戰術。而這本《數學教你不犯錯》就是你最好的教練，它能教你如何達成目標。在《數學教你不犯錯》的下冊中，你會知道什麼是期望值，知道期望值的正確用法，例如在買樂透時，什麼時候才是出手的好時機；如何做決定才能獲利最多、損失最少。你還會明白迴歸趨勢，不再會對未來抱持不實際的想法，得以知道如何判斷才是正確之道。你還能清楚存在性是什麼，從此不會給民調數據搞得團團轉，清楚看出誰用什麼手段在操縱民意。你會發現，許多的盲點，都可以用數學突破，數學真的可以教你不犯錯。【作者簡介】艾倫伯格,Jordan Ellenberg從小就是數學神童 ... Read more

$10.70 USD

會數學就像戴上X光的眼鏡，能從混亂無序的世界表像裡，看透其後隱藏的結構。數學是一門不會把事情搞錯的學問，它的技術與習慣經歷過多少世紀的辛勤努力與論辯。手中有了數學當工具，你可以更深刻、更穩健、更有意義的瞭解這個世界。你需要的只是一位教練，或甚至是一本書，來教導你相關規則及基本戰術。而這本《數學教你不犯錯》就是你最好的教練，它能教你如何達成目標。在《數學教你不犯錯》的下冊中，你會知道什麼是期望值，知道期望值的正確用法，例如在買樂透時，什麼時候才是出手的好時機；如何做決定才能獲利最多、損失最少。你還會明白迴歸趨勢，不再會對未來抱持不實際的想法，得以知道如何判斷才是正確之道。你還能清楚存在性是什麼，從此不會給民調數據搞得團團轉，清楚看出誰用什麼手段在操縱民意。你會發現，許多的盲點，都可以用數學突破，數學真的可以教你不犯錯。【作者簡介】艾倫伯格,Jordan Ellenberg從小就是數學神童
... Read more
數學教你不犯錯〈上〉：不落入線性思考、避免錯誤推論

HOW NOT TO BE WRONG:The Power of Mathematical Thinking

Translated by 李國偉 ...

by 艾倫伯格, Jordan Ellenberg ...

Series series 科學文化
會數學就像戴上X光的眼鏡，能從混亂無序的世界表像裡，看透其後隱藏的結構。數學是一門不會把事情搞錯的學問，它的技術與習慣經歷過多少世紀的辛勤努力與論辯。手中有了數學當工具，你可以更深刻、更穩健、更有意義的瞭解這個世界。你需要的只是一位教練，或甚至是一本書，來教導你相關規則及基本戰術。而這本《數學教你不犯錯》就是你最好的教練，它能教你如何達成目標。在《數學教你不犯錯，上》，你能學會如何不落入線性思考：你會明白做決策得先明白自己的立足點、你將學會用數學來撥正錯誤的直覺、看清真正的趨勢。你也能學會不做錯誤推論：從此看清楚投顧老師的詐術，知道巧合比你想象的還常發生，看清不太可能跟不可能的差別，而且從此不受統計數字的愚弄！【作者簡介】艾倫伯格,Jordan Ellenberg從小就是數學神童，並樂意用一般人聽得懂得描述，介紹數學與真實世界的連結。艾倫伯格是哈佛大學數學博士、威斯康辛大學數學教授 ... Read more

$9.50 USD

會數學就像戴上X光的眼鏡，能從混亂無序的世界表像裡，看透其後隱藏的結構。數學是一門不會把事情搞錯的學問，它的技術與習慣經歷過多少世紀的辛勤努力與論辯。手中有了數學當工具，你可以更深刻、更穩健、更有意義的瞭解這個世界。你需要的只是一位教練，或甚至是一本書，來教導你相關規則及基本戰術。而這本《數學教你不犯錯》就是你最好的教練，它能教你如何達成目標。在《數學教你不犯錯，上》，你能學會如何不落入線性思考：你會明白做決策得先明白自己的立足點、你將學會用數學來撥正錯誤的直覺、看清真正的趨勢。你也能學會不做錯誤推論：從此看清楚投顧老師的詐術，知道巧合比你想象的還常發生，看清不太可能跟不可能的差別，而且從此不受統計數字的愚弄！【作者簡介】艾倫伯格,Jordan Ellenberg從小就是數學神童，並樂意用一般人聽得懂得描述，介紹數學與真實世界的連結。艾倫伯格是哈佛大學數學博士、威斯康辛大學數學教授
... Read more
C# 最強入門邁向頂尖高手之路王者歸來

by 洪錦魁 ...

C# 最強入門邁向頂尖高手之路王者歸來★★★★★【國內第1本最新 C# 語法】★★★★★★★★★★【最完整的 C# 基礎語法】、【最徹底物件導向觀念】★★★★★★★★★★【最強視窗設計專案實戰】★★★★★　　多次和資訊教育界閒談，大家公認C#是非常重要的程式語言，也是資訊科系的學生或是工程師必備的程式語言。閒聊中大家也一至獲得結論，C#不容易學習，許多人學習C#都感到很辛苦，原因如下：　　1：市面上的書籍沒有從C#基礎語法開始介紹。　　2：使用舊語法解說C#，C#已經進化到最上層語句觀念(Top-level statement)，幾乎沒有任何書籍介紹或說明。　　3：C#其實是物件導向語言，國內書籍書籍內容對於C#語言物件導向觀念講解... ... Read more

$24.82 USD

C# 最強入門邁向頂尖高手之路王者歸來★★★★★【國內第1本最新 C# 語法】★★★★★★★★★★【最完整的 C# 基礎語法】、【最徹底物件導向觀念】★★★★★★★★★★【最強視窗設計專案實戰】★★★★★　　多次和資訊教育界閒談，大家公認C#是非常重要的程式語言，也是資訊科系的學生或是工程師必備的程式語言。閒聊中大家也一至獲得結論，C#不容易學習，許多人學習C#都感到很辛苦，原因如下：　　1：市面上的書籍沒有從C#基礎語法開始介紹。　　2：使用舊語法解說C#，C#已經進化到最上層語句觀念(Top-level statement)，幾乎沒有任何書籍介紹或說明。　　3：C#其實是物件導向語言，國內書籍書籍內容對於C#語言物件導向觀念講解...
... Read more
Theory of Games and Economic Behavior

60th Anniversary Commemorative Edition

by John von Neumann, Oskar Morgenstern, Ariel Rubinstein ...

This is the classic work upon which modern-day game theory is based. What began more than sixty years ago as a modest proposal that a mathematician and an economist write a short paper together blossomed, in 1944, when Princeton University Press published Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. In it, John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern conceived a groundbreaking mathematical theory of economic ... Read more

$56.89 USD

This is the classic work upon which modern-day game theory is based. What began more than sixty years ago as a modest proposal that a mathematician and an economist write a short paper together blossomed, in 1944, when Princeton University Press published Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. In it, John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern conceived a groundbreaking mathematical theory of economic
... Read more
形狀：資訊、生物、策略、民主和所有事物背後隱藏的幾何學

by 喬丹．艾倫伯格 ...

Translated by 蔡丹婷 ...

Series series 鷹之眼
美國最受歡迎的數學教授、《數學教你不犯錯》作者喬丹．艾倫伯格的最新大作，以數學對現實世界進行深度的解析。本書帶你邂逅新的幾何學：流行病傳播的幾何學、混亂美國政治進程的幾何學、職業棋士的幾何學、人工智能的幾何學、英語的幾何學、財金的幾何學、物理的幾何學，以及詩的幾何學。　　「這本書怎麼可能這麼有娛樂性？這不合理啊！它揭示了幾何思維如何促成從更公平的美國選舉、到更好的流行病規劃。」―紐約時報　　幾何學不是歐幾里得，早就不是了。它不是散發著教室氣息的文化遺產，而是一門活生生的學科，正以前所未有的速度前進。　　　　　這本書讓你邂逅新的幾何學。... ... Read more

$13.74 USD

美國最受歡迎的數學教授、《數學教你不犯錯》作者喬丹．艾倫伯格的最新大作，以數學對現實世界進行深度的解析。本書帶你邂逅新的幾何學：流行病傳播的幾何學、混亂美國政治進程的幾何學、職業棋士的幾何學、人工智能的幾何學、英語的幾何學、財金的幾何學、物理的幾何學，以及詩的幾何學。　　「這本書怎麼可能這麼有娛樂性？這不合理啊！它揭示了幾何思維如何促成從更公平的美國選舉、到更好的流行病規劃。」―紐約時報　　幾何學不是歐幾里得，早就不是了。它不是散發著教室氣息的文化遺產，而是一門活生生的學科，正以前所未有的速度前進。　　　　　這本書讓你邂逅新的幾何學。...
... Read more
Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from the Data

Stripping the Dread from the Data

by Charles Wheelan ...

The best-selling author of Naked Economics defies the odds with a book about statistics that you’ll welcome and enjoy.Once considered tedious, the field of statistics is rapidly evolving into a discipline Hal Varian, chief economist at Google, has actually called “sexy.” From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research, the real-world application of statistics continues ... Read more

$12.29 USD

The best-selling author of Naked Economics defies the odds with a book about statistics that you’ll welcome and enjoy.Once considered tedious, the field of statistics is rapidly evolving into a discipline Hal Varian, chief economist at Google, has actually called “sexy.” From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research, the real-world application of statistics continues
... Read more
Expected Goals

The story of how data conquered football and changed the game forever

by Rory Smith ...

Shortlisted for the William Hill Sports Book of the Year Award 2022Football has always measured success by what you win, but only in the last twenty years have clubs started to think about how you win. Data has now suffused almost every aspect of how football is played, coached, scouted and consumed. But it’s not the algorithms or new metrics that have made this change, it’s the people behind them ... Read more

$17.09 USD

Shortlisted for the William Hill Sports Book of the Year Award 2022Football has always measured success by what you win, but only in the last twenty years have clubs started to think about how you win. Data has now suffused almost every aspect of how football is played, coached, scouted and consumed. But it’s not the algorithms or new metrics that have made this change, it’s the people behind them
... Read more
Perfect Rigor

A Genius and the Mathematical Breakthrough of the Century

by Masha Gessen ...

A gripping and tragic tale that sheds rare light on the unique burden of geniusIn 2006, an eccentric Russian mathematician named Grigori Perelman solved the Poincare Conjecture, an extremely complex topological problem that had eluded the best minds for over a century. A prize of one million dollars was offered to anyone who could unravel it, but Perelman declined the winnings, and in doing so ... Read more

$15.29 USD

A gripping and tragic tale that sheds rare light on the unique burden of geniusIn 2006, an eccentric Russian mathematician named Grigori Perelman solved the Poincare Conjecture, an extremely complex topological problem that had eluded the best minds for over a century. A prize of one million dollars was offered to anyone who could unravel it, but Perelman declined the winnings, and in doing so
... Read more
Flatland

by Edwin A. Abbott ...

Flatland: A Romance of Many Dimensions is an 1884 satirical novella by the English schoolmaster Edwin Abbott Abbott.Written pseudonymously as "A Square", the book used the fictional two-dimensional world of Flatland to comment on the hierarchy of Victorian culture, but the novella's more enduring contribution is its examination of dimensions.This masterpiece of science (and mathematical) fiction ... Read more

$1.99 USD

Flatland: A Romance of Many Dimensions is an 1884 satirical novella by the English schoolmaster Edwin Abbott Abbott.Written pseudonymously as "A Square", the book used the fictional two-dimensional world of Flatland to comment on the hierarchy of Victorian culture, but the novella's more enduring contribution is its examination of dimensions.This masterpiece of science (and mathematical) fiction
... Read more
漢魏六朝子書考索

by 尹玉珊 ...

先秦诸子驰骋于人类文明的轴心时代，著书立说，为中国思想史的宝库平添绚烂的色彩。而《隋书·经籍志》著录的诸子“合八百五十三部，六千四百三十七卷”，扣除《汉志》著录的“百八十九家”，至少有四百多部（家）著作完成于汉魏六朝时期。因此可以说汉魏六朝是子部著述的第二个高峰，也可能是最后的辉煌。《汉魏子书研究》作为学界的第一部系统研究汉魏六朝子书的专著，完成了这一辉煌的前半段，本书则接续了后半段。将两书合观，前承先秦，后接隋唐，中国子学的发展图景被描绘得更细致，脉络更为清晰。全书包括上、中、下三篇，上篇主要为汉魏六朝子书的文本考辨，中篇主要为子书文本的细读与应用，下篇为汉魏六朝子书的叙录。上篇是中篇的基础，下篇既是上篇与中篇的前提，又包含了上篇文本考辨的成果。因此，三篇标题看似散乱，其实关系甚紧。 ... Read more

$16.21 USD

先秦诸子驰骋于人类文明的轴心时代，著书立说，为中国思想史的宝库平添绚烂的色彩。而《隋书·经籍志》著录的诸子“合八百五十三部，六千四百三十七卷”，扣除《汉志》著录的“百八十九家”，至少有四百多部（家）著作完成于汉魏六朝时期。因此可以说汉魏六朝是子部著述的第二个高峰，也可能是最后的辉煌。《汉魏子书研究》作为学界的第一部系统研究汉魏六朝子书的专著，完成了这一辉煌的前半段，本书则接续了后半段。将两书合观，前承先秦，后接隋唐，中国子学的发展图景被描绘得更细致，脉络更为清晰。全书包括上、中、下三篇，上篇主要为汉魏六朝子书的文本考辨，中篇主要为子书文本的细读与应用，下篇为汉魏六朝子书的叙录。上篇是中篇的基础，下篇既是上篇与中篇的前提，又包含了上篇文本考辨的成果。因此，三篇标题看似散乱，其实关系甚紧。
... Read more
The Miniature Guide to Critical Thinking Concepts and Tools

by Richard Paul, Linda Elder ...

Series series Thinker's Guide Library
This powerful book introduces core critical thinking concepts and principles as an empowering problem-solving framework for every profession, course of study, and indeed every area of life. The Miniature Guide to Critical Thinking Concepts and Tools distills the groundbreaking work of Richard Paul and Linda Elder, targeting how to deconstruct thinking through the elements of reasoning and how to ... Read more

$12.79 USD

This powerful book introduces core critical thinking concepts and principles as an empowering problem-solving framework for every profession, course of study, and indeed every area of life. The Miniature Guide to Critical Thinking Concepts and Tools distills the groundbreaking work of Richard Paul and Linda Elder, targeting how to deconstruct thinking through the elements of reasoning and how to
... Read more
Fact over Fake

A Critical Thinker's Guide to Media Bias and Political Propaganda

by Richard Paul, Linda Elder ...

Series series Thinker's Guide Library
Today’s instantaneous and ever-present news stream frequently presents a sensationalized or otherwise distorted view of the world, demanding constant critical engagement on the part of everyday citizens. Richard Paul and Linda Elder reveal the power of critical thinking to make sense of overwhelming and often subjective media by detecting ideology, slant, and spin at work. Fact over Fake is an ... Read more

$25.69 USD

Today’s instantaneous and ever-present news stream frequently presents a sensationalized or otherwise distorted view of the world, demanding constant critical engagement on the part of everyday citizens. Richard Paul and Linda Elder reveal the power of critical thinking to make sense of overwhelming and often subjective media by detecting ideology, slant, and spin at work. Fact over Fake is an
... Read more
The Thinker's Guide to Fallacies

The Art of Mental Trickery and Manipulation

by Linda Elder, Richard Paul ...

Series series Thinker's Guide Library
The Thinker’s Guide to Fallacies introduces the concept of mental trickery and shows readers how to discern and see through forty-four different types of fallacies. Focusing on how human self-deception and manipulation lie behind fallacies, this guide builds reasoning skills and promotes fairminded, logical thought, discussions, and debate.As part of the Thinker’s Guide Library, this book advances ... Read more

$25.69 USD

The Thinker’s Guide to Fallacies introduces the concept of mental trickery and shows readers how to discern and see through forty-four different types of fallacies. Focusing on how human self-deception and manipulation lie behind fallacies, this guide builds reasoning skills and promotes fairminded, logical thought, discussions, and debate.As part of the Thinker’s Guide Library, this book advances
... Read more

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