Stochastic Optimal Control (SOC)—a mathematical theory concerned with minimizing a cost (or maximizing a payout) pertaining to a controlled dynamic process under uncertainty—has proven incredibly helpful to understanding and predicting debt crises and evaluating proposed financial regulation and risk management. Stochastic Optimal Control and the U.S. Financial Debt Crisis analyzes SOC in relation to the 2008 U.S. financial crisis, and offers a detailed framework depicting why suc...

Defending society against natural hazards is a high-stakes game of chance against nature, involving tough decisions. How should a developing nation allocate its budget between building schools for towns without ones or making existing schools earthquake-resistant? Does it make more sense to build levees to protect against floods, or to prevent development in the areas at risk? Would more lives be saved by making hospitals earthquake-resistant, or using the funds for patient care? What shou...

An introduction to statistical data mining, Data Analysis and Data Mining is both textbook and professional resource. Assuming only a basic knowledge of statistical reasoning, it presents core concepts in data mining and exploratory statistical models to students and professional statisticians-both those working in communications and those working in a technological or scientific capacity-who have a limited knowledge of data mining. This book presents key statistical concepts by w...

Emphasizing practical understanding over the technicalities of specific algorithms, this elegant textbook is an accessible introduction to the field of optimization, focusing on powerful and reliable convex optimization techniques. Students and practitioners will learn how to recognize, simplify, model and solve optimization problems - and apply these principles to their own projects. A clear and self-contained introduction to linear algebra demonstrates core mathematical concepts in a way...

A global history of the climate catastrophe caused by the Tambora eruptionWhen Indonesia's Mount Tambora erupted in 1815, it unleashed the most destructive wave of extreme weather the world has witnessed in thousands of years. The volcano’s massive sulfate dust cloud enveloped the Earth, cooling temperatures and disrupting major weather systems for more than three years. Communities worldwide endured famine, disease, and civil unrest on a catastrophic scale.

Assuming no prior knowledge or technical skills, Getting Started with Business Analytics: Insightful Decision-Making explores the contents, capabilities, and applications of business analytics. It bridges the worlds of business and statistics and describes business analytics from a non-commercial standpoint. The authors demystify the main concepts

Students and instructors alike will benefit from this rigorous, unfussy text, which keeps a clear focus on the basic probabilistic concepts required for an understanding of financial market models, including independence and conditioning. Assuming only some calculus and linear algebra, the text develops key results of measure and integration, which are applied to probability spaces and random variables, culminating in central limit theory. Consequently it provides essential prerequisites t...

Risk management for financial institutions is one of the key topics the financial industry has to deal with. The present volume is a mathematically rigorous text on solvency modeling. Currently, there are many new developments in this area in the financial and insurance industry (Basel III and Solvency II), but none of these developments provides a fully consistent and comprehensive framework for the analysis of solvency questions. Merz and Wüthrich combine ideas from financial mathematics...

A riveting history of the Mount St. Helens eruption that will "long stand as a classic of descriptive narrative" (Simon Winchester).For months in early 1980, scientists, journalists, sightseers, and nearby residents listened anxiously to rumblings in Mount St. Helens, part of the chain of western volcanoes fueled by the 700-mile-long Cascadia fault. Still, no one was prepared when an immense eruption took the top off of the mountain and laid waste to hundreds of sq...

The twenty-first century has seen a breathtaking expansion of statistical methodology, both in scope and in influence. 'Big data', 'data science', and 'machine learning' have become familiar terms in the news, as statistical methods are brought to bear upon the enormous data sets of modern science and commerce. How did we get here? And where are we going? This book takes us on an exhilarating journey through the revolution in data analysis following the introduction of electronic computati...

"A lay-reader-friendly guide to seismology fundamentals, from early theories about earthquake origins to the workings of contemporary plate tectonics. . . . Musson . . .[keeps] readers absorbed with clear explanations and colorful anecdotes about one of nature's most calamitous forces" ( Booklist ).For centuries, Californians and the Japanese have known that they were at risk of catastrophic earthquakes, a...

Predictive modeling involves the use of data to forecast future events. It relies on capturing relationships between explanatory variables and the predicted variables from past occurrences and exploiting this to predict future outcomes. Forecasting future financial events is a core actuarial skill - actuaries routinely apply predictive-modeling techniques in insurance and other risk-management applications. This book is for actuaries and other financial analysts who are developing their ex...