Bayesian analysis of complex models based on stochastic processes has in recent years become a growing area. This book provides a unified treatment of Bayesian analysis of models based on stochastic processes, covering the main classes of stochastic processing including modeling, computational, inference, forecasting, decision making and important applied models.Key features:Explores Bayesian analysis of models based on stochastic processes, providing a unified treatm...

An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling, Student Solutions Manual (e-only)

Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines prior beliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posterior beliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in 1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasing emphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques.This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such as variational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximate Bayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJM...

Chance and Luck: The Laws of Luck, Coincidences, Wagers, Lotteries, and the Fallacies of Gambling The false ideas prevalent among all classes of the community, cultured as well as uncultured, respecting chance and luck, illustrate the truth that common consent (in matters outside the influence of authority) argues almost of necessity error. This, by the way, might be proved by the method of probabilities. For if, in any question of difficulty, the chance that an ...

So much to read, so little time? This brief overview of The Signal and the Noise tells you what you need to know—before or after you read Nate Silver's book.Crafted and edited with care, Worth Books set the standard for quality and give you the tools you need to be a well-informed reader.This short summary and analysis of The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver includes:Historical contextChapter-by-chapter summaries

Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Bayesian Models with R-INLA provides a much needed, practically oriented & innovative presentation of the combination of Bayesian methodology and spatial statistics. The authors combine an introduction to Bayesian theory and methodology with a focus on the spatial and spatio-temporal models used within the Bayesian framework and a series of practical examples which allow the reader to link the statistical theory presented to re...

Bayesian Networks: An Introduction provides a self-contained introduction to the theory and applications of Bayesian networks, a topic of interest and importance for statisticians, computer scientists and those involved in modelling complex data sets. The material has been extensively tested in classroom teaching and assumes a basic knowledge of probability, statistics and mathematics. All notions are carefully explained and feature exercises throughout.Features include:

In this terrible new COVID-19 world, the University of Ottawa is doing its part by offering a 50% discount on this very important book. We decided not to rewrite the witty book description, though we realize it is tone-deaf at the present moment, as we wanted to give readers a sense of the tone of this title. But don’t be deceived: while a fun read, this book will help you better understand how epidemiologists, governments and health care planners use mathematical models to figure out ...

This textbook systematically presents fundamental methods of statistical analysis: from probability and statistical distributions, through basic concepts of statistical inference, to a collection of methods of analysis useful for scientific research. It is rich in tables, diagrams, and examples, in addition to theoretical justification of the methods of analysis introduced. Each chapter has a section entitled “Exercises and Problems” to accompany the text. There are altogether about 300 ex...

Praise for the Second Edition“This book should be an essential part of the personal library of every practicing statistician.”*—*TechnometricsThoroughly revised and updated, the new edition of Nonparametric Statistical Methods includes additional modern topics and procedures, more practical data sets, and new problems from real-life situations. The book continues to emphasize the importance of nonparametric methods as a significant branch of modern statistics and eq...

Presents new models, methods, and techniques and considers important real-world applications in political science, sociology, economics, marketing, and financeEmphasizing interdisciplinary coverage, Bayesian Inference in the Social Sciences builds upon the recent growth in Bayesian methodology and examines an array of topics in model formulation, estimation, and applications. The book presents recent and trending developments in a diverse, yet closely inte...

Praise for the First Edition"...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty."—Journal of Applied StatisticsThe critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty t...