This book is a practical guide on how to design, create and validate a spatial microsimulation model. These models are becoming more popular as academics and policy makers recognise the value of place in research and policy making. Recent spatial microsimulation models have been used to analyse health and social disadvantage for small areas; and to look at the effect of policy change for small areas. This provides a powerful analysis tool for researchers and policy makers.This book...

Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about busines...

The best-selling author of Naked Economics defies the odds with a book about statistics that you’ll welcome and enjoy.Once considered tedious, the field of statistics is rapidly evolving into a discipline Hal Varian, chief economist at Google, has actually called “sexy.” From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research, the real-world application of statistics continues to grow by leaps and bounds. How can we catch schools that cheat on standard...

Darrell Huff runs the gamut of every popularly used type of statistic, probes such things as the sample study, the tabulation method, the interview technique, or the way results are derived from the figures, and points up the countless number of dodges which are used to fool rather than to inform.

Scientific progress depends on good research, and good research needs good statistics. But statistical analysis is tricky to get right, even for the best and brightest of us. You'd be surprised how many scientists are doing it wrong.Statistics Done Wrong is a pithy, essential guide to statistical blunders in modern science that will show you how to keep your research blunder-free. You'll examine embarrassing errors and omissions in recent research, learn about the misconce...

Teacher tenure is a problem. Teacher tenure is a solution. Fracking is safe. Fracking causes earthquakes. Our kids are over-tested. Our kids are not tested enough. We read claims like these in the newspaper every day, often with no justification other than 'it feels right'. How can we figure out what is right? Escaping from the clutches of truthiness begins with one simple question: 'what is the evidence?' With his usual verve and flair, Howard Wainer shows how the sceptical mindset of a d...

This is the first book to show the capabilities of Microsoft Excel to teach human resource management statistics effectively. It is a step-by-step exercise-driven guide for students and practitioners who need to master Excel to solve practical human resource management problems. If understanding statistics isn’t your strongest suit, you are not especially mathematically-inclined, or if you are wary of computers, this is the right book for you.Excel, a widely available computer prog...

Assuming no prior knowledge or technical skills, Getting Started with Business Analytics: Insightful Decision-Making explores the contents, capabilities, and applications of business analytics. It bridges the worlds of business and statistics and describes business analytics from a non-commercial standpoint. The authors demystify the main concepts

This book studies the process of demographic transition which has played a key role in the economic development of Western countries. The special focus is on France, which constitutes the first clear case of fertility decline in Europe. The book analyzes the reasons behind this phenomenon by examining the evolution of demographic variables in France over the past two hundred years. To better understand the reasons of the changing patterns of demographic behavior, the authors investigate th...

Predictive modeling involves the use of data to forecast future events. It relies on capturing relationships between explanatory variables and the predicted variables from past occurrences and exploiting this to predict future outcomes. Forecasting future financial events is a core actuarial skill - actuaries routinely apply predictive-modeling techniques in insurance and other risk-management applications. This book is for actuaries and other financial analysts who are developing their ex...

Risk control and derivative pricing have become of major concern to financial institutions, and there is a real need for adequate statistical tools to measure and anticipate the amplitude of the potential moves of the financial markets. Summarising theoretical developments in the field, this 2003 second edition has been substantially expanded. Additional chapters now cover stochastic processes, Monte-Carlo methods, Black-Scholes theory, the theory of the yield curve, and Minority Game. The...

This book shows the capabilities of Microsoft Excel in teaching business statistics effectively. Similar to the previously published Excel 2010 for Business Statistics, this book is a step-by-step exercise-driven guide for students and practitioners who need to master Excel to solve practical business problems. If understanding statistics isn’t your strongest suit, you are not especially mathematically-inclined, or if you are wary of computers, this is the right book for you....