The economy is so powerful in determining the results of U.S. presidential elections that political scientists can predict winners and losers with amazing accuracy long before the campaigns start. But if it is true that "it's the economy, Stupid," why do incumbents in good economies sometimes lose? The reason, Lynn Vavreck argues, is that what matters is not just the state of the economy but how candidates react to it. By demonstrating more precisely than ever before how candidates and the...

A gripping in-depth look at the presidential election that stunned the worldDonald Trump's election victory resulted in one of the most unexpected presidencies in history. Identity Crisis provides the definitive account of the campaign that seemed to break all the political rules—but in fact didn't. Featuring a new afterword by the authors that discusses the 2018 midterms and today's emerging political trends, this compelling book describes how Trump's vic...

What an intensely divisive election portends for American politicsThe year 2020 was a tumultuous time in American politics. It brought a global pandemic, protests for racial justice, and a razor-thin presidential election outcome. It culminated in an attack on the U.S. Capitol that attempted to deny Joe Biden’s victory. The Bitter End explores the long-term trends and short-term shocks that shaped this dramatic year and what these changes could mean for th...

A unique "moneyball" look at the 2012 U.S. presidential contest between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney"Game changer." We heard it so many times during the 2012 U.S. presidential election. But what actually made a difference in the contest—and what was just hype? In this groundbreaking book, John Sides and Lynn Vavreck tell the dramatic story of the election—with a big difference. Using an unusual "moneyball" approach and drawing on extensive quantitative data, they l...

Why does the American political system work the way it does?After observing the strains of intense partisanship and divided government, many Americans are wondering what logic, if any, can be found in politics. With both sides of the political spectrum being so different from one another and the scales often tipping in the favor of the opposing party by a fraction of a percentage point, how can anyone work the system to their advantage?With fresh analysis of the 20...

The year 2020 was a tumultuous time in American politics. It brought a global pandemic, protests for racial justice, and a razor-thin presidential election outcome. It culminated in an attack on the US Capitol that attempted to deny Joe Biden's victory. The Bitter End explores the long-term trends and short-term shocks that shaped this dramatic year and what these changes could mean for the future.John Sides, Chris Tausanovitch, and Lynn Vavreck demonstrate that Trump's pr...

Identity Crisis takes readers from the bruising primaries to an election night whose outcome defied the predictions of the pollsters and pundits. The book shows how fundamental characteristics of the nation and its politics?the state of the economy, the Obama presidency, and the demographics of the political parties?combined with the candidates’ personalities and rhetoric to produce one of the most unexpected presidencies in history. Early on, the fundamental characteristics predi...

What is wrong with American political campaigns? How could the campaign process be improved? This volume brings the expertise of leading political scientists to the public debate about campaign reform. These scholars probe the reality behind the conventional wisdom that nasty, vacuous campaigns dominated by big money and cynical media coverage are perverting our political process and alienating our citizenry.Some of their conclusions will be startling to campaigners and critics ali...

"Random, or Romney?" is the second of a series of free eBook preview chapters from John Sides and Lynn Vavreck's groundbreaking Fall 2013 book, The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election. These eBook chapters are scheduled to be released between August and December 2012.Picking up where the first chapter, "The Hand You're Dealt," left off, "Random, or Romney?" provides incisive analysis of the Republican primary season up to the Iowa caucuses. During t...

This is the first of a series of free ebook preview chapters--scheduled to be released between August and December 2012--from a groundbreaking book in progress about the 2012 U.S. presidential election. What are the odds that Barack Obama will be reelected in November, despite a weak economy? Many answers to this question are backed by little more than speculation and spin. But what does current and historical data--and political science--suggest? In this chapter, political analysts...