Supported by a wealth of learning features, exercises, and visual elements as well as online video tutorials and interactive simulations, this book is the first student-focused introduction to Bayesian statistics.Without sacrificing technical integrity for the sake of simplicity, the author draws upon accessible, student-friendly language to provide approachable instruction perfectly aimed at statistics and Bayesian newcomers. Through a logical structure that introduces and builds ...

Beautifully written speculative fiction from Metaphorosis magazine.All the stories from the month, plus author biographies, interviews, and story origins.Table of ContentsSnow Queen – T. R. NorthBusiness as Usual – N. R. LambertBe Prepared to Shoot the Nanny – Rachel KolarThe Snow Queen’s Daughter – Sean R. RobinsonCover art by Ben Bronstein.

Sir Michael Morpurgo retells ten of Shakespeare’s best-loved plays in this stunning audio collection in association with the RSC, featuring readings by members of the Royal Shakespeare Company and Michael himself.This collection includes Romeo and Juliet, A Midsummer Night’s Dream, Macbeth, Hamlet, King Lear, Henry V, Twelfth Night, Taming of the Shrew, The Winter’s Tale and The Tempest.Translating these iconic plays into thrilling prose, ...

Concerned by the changing social climate in Gimul, Ryoma resolves to reinvigorate the city and take out whoever is orchestrating the city's decline. With the help of reinforcements (courtesy of the duke) Ryoma uses his connection with the city's residents to his full advantage, concocting revolutionary policies and businesses to clean up the streets of Gimul! Meanwhile, the nine gods call Ryoma to explain a key piece of information about slime magic... The slime-ridden slice of life contin...

Winner of the 2024 De Groot Prize awarded by the International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)Statistical Rethinking: A Bayesian Course with Examples in R and Stan builds your knowledge of and confidence in making inferences from data. Reflecting the need for scripting in today's model-based statistics, the book pushes you to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that you under...

A young girl runs to her grandmother in tears after displeasing her teacher. Gran Abigail hugs away the tears and tells her granddaughter that she, too, had sometimes been in trouble at school, one time BIG TROUBLE, after making a hideout with a friend and sneaking away from the playground. While Abigail and her new best friend were hiding out, the entire school thought that they had been kidnapped, leaving everyone in fear.Roxanne and Abigail will have more adventures to share in "...

The May/June 2023 issue of Hugo Award-winning Uncanny Magazine.Featuring new fiction by Aliette de Bodard, Kylie Lee Baker, Lindsey Godfrey Eccles, Fran Wilde, Ewen Ma, Theodora Ward, and K.S. Walker. Reprint fiction by Chimedum Ohaegbu. Essays by Caroline M. Yoachim, LaShawn M. Wanak, Hana Lee, and Sam J. Miller, poetry by Nnadi Samuel, Jennifer Mace, Tehnuka, and Angela Liu, interviews with Kylie Lee Baker and Ewen Ma by Caroline M. Yoachim, a cover by Antonio Caparo, an...

Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines prior beliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posterior beliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in 1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasing emphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques.This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such as variational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximate Bayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJM...

This textbook explains the basic ideas of subjective probability and shows how subjective probabilities must obey the usual rules of probability to ensure coherency. It defines the likelihood function, prior distributions and posterior distributions. It explains how posterior distributions are the basis for inference and explores their basic properties. Various methods of specifying prior distributions are considered, with special emphasis on subject-matter considerations and exchange abil...

Bayesian inference has become a standard method of analysis in many fields of science. Students and researchers in experimental psychology and cognitive science, however, have failed to take full advantage of the new and exciting possibilities that the Bayesian approach affords. Ideal for teaching and self study, this book demonstrates how to do Bayesian modeling. Short, to-the-point chapters offer examples, exercises, and computer code (using WinBUGS or JAGS, and supported by Matlab and R...

“Including work by literary heavy–hitters... the anthology considers the act and weight of watching and being watched... and in Watchlist, these see–to–know quests range from funny to terrifying.” —Los Angeles MagazineIn Watchlist, some of today’s most prominent and promising fiction writers from around the globe respond to, meditate on, and mine for inspiration the surveillance culture in which we live. With contributions from Etgar Kere...

Although shapeless, perhaps immaterial, destiny is lurking. It's raining. A black Ford runs along a quite desert road, in the middle of Vermont woods. It's running toward something threatening, while the notes of an old piece by The Doors hover in the air.