From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists comes a seminal book on forecasting that shows, for the first time, how we can all get better at making predictions.In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brook...

Is your business playing it safe—or taking the right risks?If you read nothing else on managing risk, read these 10 articles. We've combed through hundreds of Harvard Business Review articles and selected the most important ones to help your company make smart decisions and thrive, even when the future is unclear.This book will inspire you to:Avoid the most common errors in risk managementUnderstand the three distinc...

Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion.Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by wel...

Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for ...

For the first time in decades of groundbreaking research, the inventor of the 10,000-hour rule explains his techniques for developing mastery of any skillWe live in a world full of people with extraordinary abilities. Consider what Roger Federer can do with a tennis ball, or Connor McDavid with a puck. There are chess grandmasters who can play several dozen different games simultaneously--while blindfolded--and a seemingly unending supply of young musical prodigies...

From the bestselling author of The Power of Habit comes a fascinating new book exploring the science of productivity, and why, in today's world, managing how you think—rather than what you think about—can transform your life.Productivity, recent studies suggest, isn't always about driving ourselves harder, working faster and pushing ourselves toward greater "efficiency." Rather, real productivity relies on managing how we think, identify goals, construct t...

Capitalism has lifted millions out of poverty. Under its guiding hand, living standards throughout the Western world have been transformed. Further afield, the trail blazed by Japan is being followed by other emerging market countries across the globe, creating prosperity on a breathtaking scale. And yet, capitalism is unloved. From its discontents to its outright enemies, voices compete to point out the flaws in the system that allow increasingly powerful elites to grab an ever larger sha...

Self Science takes the study of the brain out of the laboratory and into the light. After years of seeing how evidence-based practices ignore the individual and fall into generalizations, Dr. Mandy Wintink decided there had to be another way. Looking beyond her training in traditional neuroscience, she embarked on a journey to better understand the way her own brain works and discovered a holistic understanding that put the individual back in focus. With this book, she tells that story and...

Financial collapse and crisis; disgust at bankers’ greed; the devastating effects of yawning inequality: all these and more have led to widespread dissatisfaction and disenchantment with capitalism. People are crying out for an alternative but are continually told that one does not exist.In this fully updated new edition Richard Swift examines the past shortcomings and present health of not one but many other paths to changing the world, including socialism, social democracy, anarc...

A trusted handbook for more than a decade, Peter Collett’s bestselling guide to body language, How to Tell What People Are Thinking, has been fully updated with the latest research, including insight into everything from Zoom meetings to the confounding world of online dating.Understand what people aren’t saying and what you’re unwittingly revealing about yourselfHow does the way someone use their feet show if they’re interested in you?

INTERNATIONAL AND NATIONAL BESTSELLERForensic psychologist and memory expert Dr. Julia Shaw reveals why we are all unreliable narrators of our own life stories.Think you have a good memory? Think again.Memories are our most cherished possessions. We rely on them every day of our lives. They make us who we are. And yet the truth is they are far from being the accurate record of the past we like to think they are.In The Me...

Taxes connect us to one another, to the common good, and to the future. This is a book about taxes: who pays what and who gets what. More than that, it’s about the role of government, about citizenship and our collective well-being, about the Canada we want. The contributors, leading Canadian practitioners and scholars, explore how taxes have become a political “no-go zone” and how changes in taxation are changing Canada. They challenge the view that any tax is a bad tax and provide broad ...